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Saturday, December 3, 2022

First Amendment For Dummies

 There seems to be a lot of discussion around free speech, lately, with Elmo allowing spewers of hatred and disinformation back onto the cesspool that Twitter has become.  Almost every comment on the topic displays a complete lack of understanding of the First Amendment.  Let's begin with the actual text:

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

It actually seems pretty straightforward to me, but for some reason, many have the completely fucking wrong idea that Twitter must allow free speech.  News flash kids; as a private corporation, it doesn't have to allow jack.  

Let's say I owned a bar; as a business owner, I want a positive experience for my customers, so they'll return and maybe recommend my establishment to others.  What I don't want is to be seen as someone who endorses and gives a platform to that which most reasonable people find objectionable.  Therefore, if someone came in, spouting praise for Hitler, their ass would be tossed with malice.  That person has the freedom to espouse their love for Hitler all they want, but not in my private business.  I have the right to abridge free speech all day in my establishment, because I'm not the government.

It's the same situation for Twitter, in that the (previous) management was focused on providing a safe platform to exchange ideas, and cat pictures.  More users ultimately results in greater advertising revenue.  Right wing hate speech, meant to incite violence, and dangerous medical non-advice degrades that safe environment for users.  It also drives away advertisers who don't wish to be associated with such material.  News flash for the right wing looneys; most people find that shit objectionable.  

Yet, there are those who continue to clamor for all of the banned accounts to be restored, claiming their voices are being suppressed.  To that, I offer a hearty, "who gives a shit?"  Twitter can ban whomever they want, whenever they want, and remove people for saying things they don't like, because again, they aren't the government.  

Since I started writing this one, the whole Twitter file nonsense has broken.  As expected, it was a big fat pile of nothing.  Twitter suppressed some tweets, which were essentially revenge porn of Hunter; something that's quite illegal.  BOTH the Biden and Trump campaign had interactions with Twitter on these types of situations.  

I'll make one comment on the Hunter Biden laptop, which is one more than it deserves.  The data on that hard drive has been spread far and wide and is well known at this point.  If there were damning evidence present, it would have been broken by now, by more than the fringe right wing media.  

Thursday, December 1, 2022

The Far Right - Completely Uninformed

 As regular readers know, I've had my encounters with the far right on shooting message boards.  These were mostly cult members, who refused to believe anything negative about the Orange Traitor.  As an example, I noted Cheeto Face's raging sociopathic narcissism, to which I was challenged, of course.  I posted links to articles from a wide range of sources (to prevent being accused of believing "commie garbage") and none of those cult members believed any of it.  Not shocking, I know.  The thing is there were a finite number of right wing looneys who did most of the screaming.  

Fast forward to today, with me more active on Twitter, and discovering more cultists.  There seems to be an unending supply of them on the site and they know absolutely nothing about reality.  Recently, I interacted with someone who was part of the "investigate Biden" crowd.  I'd commented about how odd I found it that not one Republican Congressperson took the least bit of interest in Jarod's $2 billion payment from the Saudis.  There were two folks who chimed in, calling my comment a lie.  Long story short, they were completely unaware of that payment until I posted proof.  

My favorite of the week, so far, is the guy who refused to believe Trump had been in legal trouble before, so I posted an official link to the outcome and settlement.  His response?  "That's your opinion."

I just remembered my true favorite for the week.  There was outrage amongst the looneys that the Orange Traitor was forced to turn over his tax returns, with numerous comments to the effect that "if our lord and savior had to turn his over, where's Biden's or Obama's?  They should be forced as well."  After I explained that Trump had to turn his over as part of an investigation, I posted links to the tax returns they demanded and informed them the only Presidential candidate, in over 50 years, who hasn't voluntarily provided their tax returns was Cheeto Face.  

These people have literally zero understanding of the world around them.  Fortunately, I've reached that point of zen where I won't waste time spoon feeding anymore...they just get blocked.

Monday, November 28, 2022

Physical Appearance and Lack of Differentiation

 Life here in RTP remains blissful, but I discovered a challenge to living in my neighborhood.  As I mentioned in Minority Report, most of my neighbors are Indian.  As I also mentioned, they've been kind, friendly, and welcoming, but I can't tell them apart!  Specifically, I'm referring to the women in the neighborhood where most of them look like they're out of central casting.  Every one of the Indian women on my street, between their 30's and 50's are 5'4", slenderish build, with long, straight, black hair, no makeup, and very subdued clothing.  What doesn't help matters is my distance vision is on the edge of needing correction (thanks laser surgery for lasting almost 20 years!) so making out fine facial features any further than 25 feet is all but impossible.  As I mentioned, they're all very friendly, but I never know whether I'm looking at my next door neighbor or someone from two blocks over.  I find this frustrating, because it prevents me from "placing" them and offering more than a "Hi".  

The fact of the matter is white women are easier to place because of the greater variations in body type, hair color / style, height, and mannerisms.  Facial features are easier to place at some distance because of heritage.  Women with Italian genetics look different than ones with Scandinavian or Slavic.  Makeup also plays a big role in differentiating.  That all means that white "familiar stranger" women tend to stick in the memory banks more easily.  

The men are much easier because of build, facial hair, the way they carry themselves, and a bit more varied heights.  

These are the things I spend my days pondering...damn, I need a life!

Sunday, November 27, 2022

It's The Guns - Revisited

 Despite my best, good faith efforts to illustrate the relationship (or lack thereof) between gun violence and gun ownership, there are those who remain unconvinced, some of whom have been nasty, insulting, little pansies about it.  They continue to cry "it's the guns" that are causing the epidemic of firearm related homicides.  Obviously, you can't have firearm related homicides without firearms, but that's where the correlation ends.  

Consider a basic equation: 

GO+X*XX=GH

GO represents the percentage of households that own guns and has been declining steadily since the 70's.  It's probably increased slightly since the pandemic, based on how many new buyers have been purchasing guns.  For the purpose of this exercise, we'll peg it at 35%

GH is the number of gun related homicides

It's simple math that if GO remains constant (or within a margin of error), and GH changes dramatically, there must be a factor that impacts the outcome of the calculation.  

Some visuals may be helpful.  

This chart represents the total number of homicides by year, from 1985 through 2021.*
Things to note:
Upward trend, beginning in 2013, totals in line with early 2000's
Massive decrease over the course of the 1990's
These are raw numbers, not per capita.
The red line illustrates the downward trend in firearm ownership, per household.

Takeaway:  Our murder rate has definitely increased since 2014, but remains nowhere near what it was a few decades ago.  


This next chart illustrates number of firearm related deaths resulting from mass shootings.**  
This chart shows a clear upward trend on deaths from mass shootings, particularly in the past three years.  Of note is how the total remains less than 10% of all firearm related homicides.  



Finally, because everyone loves charts, this one illustrates number of mass homicide fatalities by year.***  One could argue the average is trending downward.    


In summary, any rational, intelligent individual would conclude guns are not to blame for the increase in firearm homicides.  Looking at the data, one could argue there really isn't an epidemic.  Gun violence is absolutely something we need to address as a society, but we won't make any progress while simpletons blame everything on one factor.  You're not helping!


*Source - FBI CDE Expanded Data, includes all homicides, not just firearm related.  However the vast majority are.  FBI changed their data availability last year to where you're no longer able to download large chunks of data, instead being forced to use their explorer, which offers zero granularity.  

** Source - Gun Violence Archive

***Source - Mother Jones Mass Homicide Database (their name is mass shooting database, but it isn't)

This entry is part of my "Gun Series" that focuses on providing insight into the gun debate and gun violence.  You can find the other entries in the series HERE
 
About the author: Sean R is a recovering conservative who owns a consulting firm specializing in strategic marketing.  He's been a competitive shooter since the early 90's and holds a High Master classification in PPC and a Master classification in USPSA.  Additionally, he's served as an instructor for gun safety and competition courses.  He lives in Raleigh, North Carolina with his overly vocal white dog, Sadie..

Saturday, November 26, 2022

Gun Culture and Banning Guns

 Based upon some of the questions and comments from readers of my previous entries on gun violence, I thought it may be of value to step back and examine the origins of America's gun culture and why that culture is so strong.  In addition, I'll throw out some gun owner's insight on our hobby. 

Gun Culture in the USA
In order to best understand why guns are so ingrained in American culture, I thinks helpful to understand why other countries don't have it.  Let's go back to the founding of this country for a quick look at the two sides that fought each other.  The bad guys lived under a monarchy and were professional soldiers for the largest empire on the planet, where the good guys, who kicked their asses, had a fledgling democratic government and were anything but professional soldiers.  This is the first glimpse of the everyman as a hero, fighting for his very freedom.  This underdog kept his musket by the front door, should he be called upon by his country.  Contrast this with the Red Coat, who upon returning home, exited his service and no longer needed his musket.  England had a standing army to repel invaders.  By then, Europe was mostly stable, relative to fighting between neighboring countries, apart from those War Wars, of course.  Fun fact:  English common law allowed carrying of guns, but only white members of the English church.  

Finally, I don't think it's possible to overstate the importance of system of government on a country's views toward gun ownership.  Until WWI, every country in Europe was run by a monarch, mostly all from the same German family (hence the stability).  And monarchs aren't terribly fond of the general populous owning weapons that could be used to overthrow them.  The same can be said for dictators.  Therefore, Europeans have been accustomed to not having guns for centuries, so our gun culture frequently baffles them.  

Returning to America, once freedom had been won, it was time to explore the rest of our great land and tame the Wild West.  Those pioneers and explorers needed guns to hunt for food as well as defend themselves from predators.  They also carried for another reason that continues to echo today.  There's not much law enforcement present when there isn't a state, much less a town to elect a sheriff.  In other words, you were left to your own devices to defend yourself against those who may wish to do you harm, so a gun could come in quite handy.  This perpetuated guns as a symbol of the everyman hero.

Guns in Popular Culture
That segues perfectly into American popular culture and the theme of rugged individualism that's echoed for a couple of centuries now.  When someone is murdered or grievously wronged, the hero that brings justice to the bad guy(s) is rarely law enforcement, or at least not typical law enforcement.  The bad guy frequently ends the story in a body bag.  Again, think about the Wild West movies and books that glorified the Colt Peacemaker and Winchester Model 1873 as the guns that won the West.  

Some random examples that pop into my head:  John Rambo had to defend himself from incapable law enforcement in the first movie, then, still shunned by the establishment, headed back to Vietnam and rescues POW's and returns a hero, having fired hundreds of thousands of rounds.  Who doled out justice when they killed his dog?  John Wick, of course, with lots and lots of guns.  For the most part, the only time when law enforcement is portrayed as the hero is when one member goes rogue, climaxing in a shootout where the villain leaves in a body bag.  Case in point - While John McClain was a cop, he was essentially a rogue hero, who had to contend not only with Hans Gruber and company trying to kill him, but the LAPD's incompetence.  He was the true hero of Nakatomi Plaza, and Die Hard is definitely a Christmas movie.  And that's how many American men want to see themselves - the rugged hero who kicks ass.  And kicking ass requires a lot of firepower!  For most American wannabe's, the only elite unit they would be qualified for is Meal Team Six, but that's another story.  Contrast that with how law enforcement is portrayed in other countries' pop cultures, where they're shown as professional, capable, and bring the bad guy to justice as a team, through hard work, collaboration, and intellect.  At most, rules are bent, but never thrown out the window.  There's rarely a gunfight involved.  

Banning Guns
Rather than focusing on whether a ban on firearms would be a good idea (it isn't), I'd like to hone in on feasibility, or lack of it.  Let's begin with legality.  Even if legislation could be passed, which it wouldn't, any ban on guns would be immediately struck down in SCOTUS, particularly with the current set of justices, on the basis it violates the 2nd Amendment.  In reality, it doesn't, as I stated here.  But that doesn't matter.

Since we're already in the land of make believe, let's take it a step further and consider enforcement.  If you learned anything from the above on gun culture, it should be that enforcement will be painful.  First, there's no registration database to work from, except for NFA items (machine guns, short barreled rifles, etc.); knowing who has what guns is impossible.  You'll have more people claiming to have lost the ones they had in boating accidents, it'll seem like even those living in New Mexico are coastal.  The folks required to enforce the ban and confiscate all these guns are the ones who'll object the strongest to such a directive.  In other words, law enforcement won't enforce such a ban and won't collect shit.  That won't matter in certain jurisdictions, which will declare themselves gun sanctuaries.  This happened with several counties in Virginia, when the state seemed poised to ban assault weapons.  Also, armed skirmishes will happen, causing further death.  Seriously, there are those out there that mean it when they say, "you can have my guns when you pry them from my cold, dead hands."  Then, there are the more radical elements...  

As I said above, banning guns is an absolute pipe dream, so maybe focus on the problem, instead of the way it manifests itself.  

This entry is part of my "Gun Series" that focuses on providing insight into the gun debate and gun violence.  You can find the other entries in the series HERE.  

About the author: Sean R is a recovering conservative who owns a consulting firm specializing in strategic marketing.  He's been a competitive shooter since the early 90's and holds a High Master classification in PPC and a Master classification in USPSA.  As an instructor, he taught courses in gun safety and competition.  He lives in Raleigh, North Carolina with his overly vocal dog, Sadie.

Friday, November 25, 2022

My Relationship With Guns

 This is what I hope will be a brief exercise to explain to those who vilify shooters that we're pretty damned normal and targeting us is plain dumb.  Admittedly, I'm not known for brevity.  

I've owned guns for over 30 years, compete with them, tinker with them, and enjoy shooting them.  I consider myself to be a shooter versus a gun nut.

My first exposure to firearms was my grandfather teaching me how to shoot around 12 years old.  Some of my most cherished memories.  He had a fair amount of land, that included a small dump in a gulley at the edge of the property.  It was the 70's, so we didn't know about the whole environmental impact.  I learned how to safely operate guns, the discipline required to hit the target, and the responsibility to clean your gun immediately after returning from shooting.  We used 22 caliber guns; a revolver and a rifle that I still have in my safe.  This same story applied to a fair number of my friends, as well.  If you grew up in the country, you shot guns for leisure and/or hunting.  And you were safe / responsible, or you didn't touch a gun.  

Shooting is Fun
That leads me to a point that those on the extreme left can't seem to recognize.  Shooting is fun.  Going to the range with your friends and seeing who can be the most accurate or just enjoying the comradery.  Even more so, when you shoot competitively; nicest and most giving folks I've had the pleasure of interacting with.  Going by myself is also enjoyable and provides a respite from daily stressors.  Nothing can cloud your mind when you're trying to hit a target 600 yards out.  Most of my practice is solo.  Everyone I know shoots at targets, whether they be paper, cardboard, or steel.  I've never encountered another shooter who looked at a target and saw a bad guy or someone they hated.  

There are likely still those who find firing a gun to be abhorrent, so I'll share a story.  I've dated three different women (married one) who despised guns, particularly the AR-15.  Considering how much I competed at the time, such a disparity in views was problematic.  I took each one to my shooting club (voluntarily, of course), along with an AR-15, and taught them to shoot it.  As I packed up afterward, the sentiment of all three were identical (almost verbatim) - When can we go again?

Carrying A Handgun
Because I grew up around guns, and both my father and grandfather carried, it was only natural that I'd have a concealed carry permit.  More in Who's The Danger To Society

Grooming
Looping back to youth learning how to shoot, I'll share one final point and a story.  Teaching your kids how to shoot is not grooming.  As I previously noted, those shared experiences frequently become cherished family memories.  My now ex wife had two kids in their preteens, when I met her.  After I moved in, one of the first things I did was teach them gun safety and let them hold a gun to remove the mystery / fascination.  Then, I taught them how to shoot; both kids were interested.  Before I let them fire a round, I lined up three milk jugs full of water and fired.  Watching the first jug explode gave them a quick education on the power that guns hold, so always be safe.  To be clear, ALL of my guns were ALWAYS under lock and key, but kids can be quite resourceful and better safe than sorry.  Did my grandfather groom me or was I grooming my stepkids?  Dumbest question on this entry; of course not.  Are those who take family Christmas pics with everyone holding firearms grooming?  No.  I consider it the height of poor taste perpetrated by white trash (it's always a white family), but there's no grooming going on that pertains to guns.  Being a scumbag, maybe... 

This entry is part of my "Gun Series" that focuses on providing insight into the gun debate and gun violence.  You can find the other entries in the series HERE.  

About the author: Sean R is a recovering conservative who owns a consulting firm specializing in strategic marketing.  He's been a competitive shooter since the early 90's and holds a High Master classification in PPC and a Master classification in USPSA.  Additionally, he's served as an instructor for gun safety and competition courses.  He lives in Raleigh, North Carolina with his overly vocal white dog, Sadie.


Mass Shootings / Mass Homicides

Written 11/25/22, with updates 3/26/23

This entry is part of my series on guns; the master entry "Guns Redux", which includes links to the rest of the series can be found HERE.

Because of current events, I've finally decided to wade into an area I'd previously avoided.  Mass shootings are ugly, from an analysis perspective, because there's no agreed upon definition for them and reporting, frankly, sucks.  Rather than getting bogged down in numbers, this effort will focus more on common threads and causation.  Before digging in, it's important to confirm terms and definitions. 

Mass Homicides are defined by the FBI 4 or more fatalities, not including the shooter, with the victims not being blood relatives.  They're typically characterized as follows:   
  • Rarity, accounting for less than 100 deaths per year
  • Committed by sociopathic loaner white guys, typically radicalized by right wing media
  • Take place in seemingly random locations (to anyone without a history of the shooter) 
  • Shooter goal - maximum number of victims and make a statement
  • Victims aren't known to the shooter; strangers (with a few exceptions)
  • Firearms are legally obtained and frequently include a semiauto rifle
Writer's note:  Apparently, Gun Violence Archive has begun to break out these two types of crimes, referring to them as mass murders.  In order to maintain consistent terminology, that's what I'll try to call them, going forward.  However, I may slip occasionally or ignore it altogether.  

Mass Shootings are generally considered to be involve four or more victims (wounded or dead), not including the shooter.  The victims can be anyone, not solely those unrelated to the shooter(s).  They're typically characterized by:
  • Being more commonplace, but still a small proportion of total fatalities (400-600 per year or 5% of firearm related homicides)
  • Committed by someone who's pissed off at another party or group; multiple shooters aren't uncommon
  • Less affluent locations where groups of people are present
  • Shooter goal - kill those who he perceives as aggrieving him 
  • Shooters and victims are frequently known to each other, with the exception of innocent bystanders that get shot
  • A much too high percentage of victims and shooters who are children
  • Firearms have been obtained via both legal and illegal means and are typically handguns
    • Exception being where gangs are involved
  • I show my work below
All mass homicides are mass shootings, but not all mass shootings are mass homicides.  The media likes to lump them all together, so they can maximize the shock value.  If they can convince you that Sandy Hook is happening 700 times a year, you'll understandably lose your mind.  

The observations below are a mix of qualitative and quantitative.  Those seeking statistics can visit my all numbers entry HERE.  

Investigation and Methodology
In order to dig into the mass shooting phenomenon, I spent time in Gun Violence Archive's (GVA) mass shooting database.  What I wanted to know were the circumstances under which the shootings occurred.  Unfortunately, there's no way to download incident data en masse and they don't bother to classify anything, so I surveyed fifty events; first one on each page and one from the middle, categorizing each incident best I could.  No, it's not scientific or irrefutable, but 50 is a significant sample size, according the quality folks.  It's as close as you're gonna get for free, kids.  

Gun Violence Archive Database
Before I get into my findings, I'll point out that the GVA's obvious agenda is to ban guns.  Therefore, it's in their best interests to maximize the hell out of the numbers.  This becomes obvious when you dig into their material, as I did.  I found a number of incidents reported that objectively can't be called a mass shooting.  The most egregious are the cases where people were shot in different locations and no confirmation existed these weren't unrelated incidents, yet they were combined and classified as mass shootings.  Because of the database being so cumbersome, there's no way to know how much this practice has inflated the numbers.  

Also, I found three shootouts in the incidents I reviewed where Venn Diagram of victims and shooters completely overlapped (i.e. 2 pairs of dudes shot each other in a gunfight).  While definitely gun violence, I say it's not a mass shooting, because there really weren't any innocent victims.  Also, Gun Violence Archive's front page includes multiple stats, including total firearm homicides by year.  Their numbers are ~20% higher than the FBI data, which is publicly available and easily accessible, and the source they cite is bullshit.  Their data is sloppy with inflated numbers to further their agenda of banning guns.  Unfortunately, GVA is the only source publicly available and the one most news outlets utilize.  It sucks, but it's the only game in town. 

Observations
Circumstances
24% were drive by shootings
20% occurred at parties (house or block)
10% happened at bars
10% gang related.  One could make the argument the drive by's were gang related, which would mean gang violence accounts for over a third of mass shootings.  
The remainder were smatterings of sports events, fights, drug dealer stuff, and one police ambush.  My personal favorite involved neighbors feuding over hedge heights.  You already know it was in Florida.
Also very noteworthy were the large number of incidents where the shooter was either a minor or a felon, neither of whom may legally possess any firearms.  

Only one of the incidents I reviewed involved an assault style weapon.  I'm sure more than one involved this type of gun, (i.e. drive by shootings), but many seem to be spur of the moment, which would indicate the firearm being concealed on the shooter's body.  Plus, rifles tend to generate higher deaths versus injuries.

Geography
I downloaded their 2022 YTD basic info, which told me that the highest number of incidents were in Chicago (no surprise), but of the top ten worst cities for mass shootings, it had one of the lowest number of incidents per 100k population.  The highest was Baltimore (.023), followed by Miami (.020) and Minneapolis (.019).  The lowest in the top ten was Phoenix (.004)

Common Themes / Conclusion
In my opinion, mass shootings tend to be:
  • More prevalent in poorer areas
  • Perpetrated by younger shooters who wanting to "get back at" their victims
  • Reflective of diminished value placed on human life
  • A mirror into the majority of firearm homicides
Lest someone accuse me of confirmation bias, because there's always one, I went into this exercise thinking I'd find something completely different.  Instead, I allowed myself to flow with the information I uncovered.  

Prevention
Considering that mass shootings, and one could argue firearm homicides in general, seem to be directly related to socioeconomic status, addressing the root cause is more than challenging.  As noted, life seems to have become cheap to many in impoverished areas; how do we reverse that trend?

With many guns used in these crimes being obtained illegally, further gun control measures won't have much of an impact.  It may be a tired gun rights trope, but it remains true that if you make guns illegal, only the criminals will have them; and it's obvious they always find a way.  So, stop with the banning talk, because it's nonsense.  

There is a measure that I'd endorse with respect to gun control, which is compulsory training with a twist.  In addition to safety, force any new buyers to sit through a video showing the impact of gunshot wounds; the more gruesome the better.  If you want a sample, Google "rifle wound" (at your own risk).  At least half the class should need to use the course supplied barf bags.  Ensure new gun owners understand the consequences of their potential actions.  My rationale is that most who pull the trigger on another human has only experienced watered down media and video games.  Make it half a day and $50; neither are onerous.  

This entry is part of my "Gun Series" that focuses on providing insight into the gun debate and gun violence.  You can find the other entries in the series HERE.  

About the author: Sean R is a recovering conservative who owns a consulting firm specializing in strategic marketing.  He's been a competitive shooter since the early 90's and holds a High Master classification in PPC and a Master classification in USPSA.  Additionally, he's served as an instructor for gun safety and competition courses.  He lives in Raleigh, North Carolina with his overly vocal white dog, Sadie.