TLDR: The 1994 Crime Bill accomplished absolutely nothing because it did almost nothing. Mass homicides remained at the same level and AR-15's were actually used in more of them during the time it was in effect.
Many folks I interact with point to the 1994 Assault Weapon Ban (AWB) as an example of a successful measure in reducing gun related homicides and mass shootings. They posit that similar success would be a reasonable expectation with a repeat of the legislation. I thought it might be a good time to explore the bill's accomplishments, from a data perspective. Having begun shooting competitively during the ban, I'll also share firsthand insight in how it changed market dynamics.
For reference, the bill went into effect September 13, 1994 and sunset on the same day in 2004.
Assault Rifles - What we've (incorrectly) come to refer to as assault rifles weren't banned outright. Instead, they were watered down to not be so scary. Rifles with detachable mags were only permitted one of the following list of attributes: pistol grips, bayonet lugs, collapsible stocks, or flash hiders, and grenade launchers. Threaded barrels were banned. As with magazines, those already manufactured or imported prior to 9/13/94 were grandfathered in. There were other rules, but they weren't applicable to the topic at hand.
| Figure 1 |
On the mass murder piece, Table 1 shows that there were the same number of incidents during the AWB as the decade prior. There was a slight decrease in the number of fatalities. However, the standard deviation on mass murder fatalities per event of 24.3, there's no statistical difference. AR's were used in more mass murders during the AWB than in the decade prior.**
For clarity, I use the FBI definition of a mass shooting (murder), which is an incident in which four or more people are shot and killed, not including the shooter, and the victims aren't related to the shooter. (i.e. excludes domestic violence)
| Table 1 |
Table 2 breaks out the numbers of incidents and resulting fatalities, across various time periods, between mass murders committed with AR's versus those that used another firearm. You can see that the AR became more popular with mass murderers but didn't didn't become the most commonly used firearm until the most recent half decade. I'll come back to that later.**
| Table 2 |
Congress was seriously miffed and pulled in the heads of Colt and Bushmaster to explain themselves. I recall the president of Colt testified something to the effect of, "We're in compliance with the law; don't whine to us when you did a shitty job of writing it."
There were other dumb loopholes, as well. The most egregious was the exemption for the Ruger Mini 14, which fires the same cartridge at the same rate of fire and holds the same number of rounds as an AR-15. Just as lethal, but less scary.There was another interesting loophole in that if you already owned hi cap mags, you could repair them (i.e. buy replacement components) if they were damaged. I "heard stories" of my fellow competitors using this loophole to build new hi caps from components. I will neither confirm nor deny doing so myself to support the new competition racegun I had just built.
Ultimately, the numbers prove the AWB had almost no impact in reducing overall gun violence or the number of mass murders because it didn't really do anything meaningful. You could still buy anything you wanted on the secondary market, at a higher price. In reality, the AWB made the AR-15 more popular. I've already written how a gun dealer friend of mine said that he had droves of first time gun buyers come in to his store to buy one. He told me there were a few that literally walked in and wanted "whatever the government doesn't want me to have." While this may be anecdotal evidence, consider that when the bill took effect, there were two manufacturers (Colt and Bushmaster) supporting 95% of the market demand for AR-15's. After the bill sunset, new ones began coming online every year to support the spike in demand. Now, there are no less than a thirty major manufacturers making AR-15's, which have become the most popular gun in the country. The author of the AWB was of course, Joe Biden. Maybe a bit of irony the person who drove the greatest spike in popularity for a gun now wants to outlaw it.
The facts above haven't prevented those who want semiautomatic guns banned from posting falsehoods and nonsense data. The one I see most frequently is the chart showing how mass murders rapidly increased after the AWB sunset. Anyone who understands cause and effect / the scientific method recognizes the chart as the bullshit it is. The AWB was meant to decrease gun violence; was there a drop after the bill was put in place versus the decade prior? That answer is obviously NO.
In order to not perpetuate the falsehood that this piece of legislation was successful in its goals, I will no longer refer to it as the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban...it was the 1994 Crime Bill.
Update: I've been made aware of at least two studies that contradict my findings with respect to the bill's impact on mass homicides. The recent video from Robert Reich you may have seen relies on one of these. Both clearly had an intended conclusion they were seeking and backed into it in some sketchy ways. I'll address each and explain why I don't care about them.
1. A Study Conducted by Stanford Law: This is the one Reich used for his video. This study utilizes the same dataset as I do, but alters the criteria of what a mass homicide is to SIX or more fatalities. They justify this via someone's book I'm not paying $18 for. My position is if the FBI's definition is good for the FBI (and is the standard most entities use), it's good enough for me. We can all manipulate the data and reach any conclusion we want, which is why I'm transparent. FWIW, another author called BS on their findings and this was the article responding to it. In addition to data manipulation, they show a complete lack of understanding of how the bill impacted someone looking to purchase a gun (it didn't). Plus, they were bitchy and petty about being called out.
2. A column by some guy in the Ohio Capital Journal that references some nebulous studies by Dimaggio: This guy copy pasted a chart from the Dimaggio study and provides a link for the data. Said data only includes fatalities by year, with no detail, and those are hopelessly understated (by almost fourfold) versus the FBI's data. Yet, he claims to have referenced Mother Jones, which if you read the footnotes, is the exact same source I use for mass murder data. The data being wildly off and no detail on methodology make this piece a joke.
In conclusion, I'm done with this topic. I lived it as a gun buyer. I easily and legally bought the shit it was supposed to ban, so I know how it impacted the availability of the guns it targeted (it didn't). The data is what the data is and further debate on the subject is a waste of time.







