Mass Shootings / Mass Homicides

Written 11/25/22, with updates 3/26/23

This entry is part of my series on guns; the master entry "Guns Redux", which includes links to the rest of the series can be found HERE.

Because of current events, I've finally decided to wade into an area I'd previously avoided.  Mass shootings are ugly, from an analysis perspective, because there's no agreed upon definition for them and reporting, frankly, sucks.  Rather than getting bogged down in numbers, this effort will focus more on common threads and causation.  Before digging in, it's important to confirm terms and definitions. 

Mass Homicides are defined by the FBI 4 or more fatalities, not including the shooter, with the victims not being blood relatives.  They're typically characterized as follows:   

• Rarity, accounting for less than 100 deaths per year
• Committed by sociopathic loaner white guys, typically radicalized by right wing media
• Take place in seemingly random locations (to anyone without a history of the shooter) 
• Shooter goal - maximum number of victims and make a statement
• Victims aren't known to the shooter; strangers (with a few exceptions)
• Firearms are legally obtained and frequently include a semiauto rifle

Writer's note:  Apparently, Gun Violence Archive has begun to break out these two types of crimes, referring to them as mass murders.  In order to maintain consistent terminology, that's what I'll try to call them, going forward.  However, I may slip occasionally or ignore it altogether.  

Mass Shootings are generally considered to be involve four or more victims (wounded or dead), not including the shooter.  The victims can be anyone, not solely those unrelated to the shooter(s).  They're typically characterized by:

• Being more commonplace, but still a small proportion of total fatalities (400-600 per year or 5% of firearm related homicides)
• Committed by someone who's pissed off at another party or group; multiple shooters aren't uncommon
• Less affluent locations where groups of people are present
• Shooter goal - kill those who he perceives as aggrieving him 
• Shooters and victims are frequently known to each other, with the exception of innocent bystanders that get shot
• A much too high percentage of victims and shooters who are children
• Firearms have been obtained via both legal and illegal means and are typically handguns
• Exception being where gangs are involved
• I show my work below

All mass homicides are mass shootings, but not all mass shootings are mass homicides.  The media likes to lump them all together, so they can maximize the shock value.  If they can convince you that Sandy Hook is happening 700 times a year, you'll understandably lose your mind.  

The observations below are a mix of qualitative and quantitative.  Those seeking statistics can visit my all numbers entry HERE.  

Investigation and Methodology

In order to dig into the mass shooting phenomenon, I spent time in Gun Violence Archive's (GVA) mass shooting database.  What I wanted to know were the circumstances under which the shootings occurred.  Unfortunately, there's no way to download incident data en masse and they don't bother to classify anything, so I surveyed fifty events; first one on each page and one from the middle, categorizing each incident best I could.  No, it's not scientific or irrefutable, but 50 is a significant sample size, according the quality folks.  It's as close as you're gonna get for free, kids.  

Gun Violence Archive Database

Before I get into my findings, I'll point out that the GVA's obvious agenda is to ban guns.  Therefore, it's in their best interests to maximize the hell out of the numbers.  This becomes obvious when you dig into their material, as I did.  I found a number of incidents reported that objectively can't be called a mass shooting.  The most egregious are the cases where people were shot in different locations and no confirmation existed these weren't unrelated incidents, yet they were combined and classified as mass shootings.  Because of the database being so cumbersome, there's no way to know how much this practice has inflated the numbers.  

Also, I found three shootouts in the incidents I reviewed where Venn Diagram of victims and shooters completely overlapped (i.e. 2 pairs of dudes shot each other in a gunfight).  While definitely gun violence, I say it's not a mass shooting, because there really weren't any innocent victims.  Also, Gun Violence Archive's front page includes multiple stats, including total firearm homicides by year.  Their numbers are ~20% higher than the FBI data, which is publicly available and easily accessible, and the source they cite is bullshit.  Their data is sloppy with inflated numbers to further their agenda of banning guns.  Unfortunately, GVA is the only source publicly available and the one most news outlets utilize.  It sucks, but it's the only game in town. 

Observations

Circumstances

24% were drive by shootings

20% occurred at parties (house or block)

10% happened at bars

10% gang related.  One could make the argument the drive by's were gang related, which would mean gang violence accounts for over a third of mass shootings.  

The remainder were smatterings of sports events, fights, drug dealer stuff, and one police ambush.  My personal favorite involved neighbors feuding over hedge heights.  You already know it was in Florida.

Also very noteworthy were the large number of incidents where the shooter was either a minor or a felon, neither of whom may legally possess any firearms.  

Only one of the incidents I reviewed involved an assault style weapon.  I'm sure more than one involved this type of gun, (i.e. drive by shootings), but many seem to be spur of the moment, which would indicate the firearm being concealed on the shooter's body.  Plus, rifles tend to generate higher deaths versus injuries.

Geography

I downloaded their 2022 YTD basic info, which told me that the highest number of incidents were in Chicago (no surprise), but of the top ten worst cities for mass shootings, it had one of the lowest number of incidents per 100k population.  The highest was Baltimore (.023), followed by Miami (.020) and Minneapolis (.019).  The lowest in the top ten was Phoenix (.004)

Common Themes / Conclusion

In my opinion, mass shootings tend to be:

• More prevalent in poorer areas
• Perpetrated by younger shooters who wanting to "get back at" their victims
• Reflective of diminished value placed on human life
• A mirror into the majority of firearm homicides

Lest someone accuse me of confirmation bias, because there's always one, I went into this exercise thinking I'd find something completely different.  Instead, I allowed myself to flow with the information I uncovered.  

Prevention

Considering that mass shootings, and one could argue firearm homicides in general, seem to be directly related to socioeconomic status, addressing the root cause is more than challenging.  As noted, life seems to have become cheap to many in impoverished areas; how do we reverse that trend?

With many guns used in these crimes being obtained illegally, further gun control measures won't have much of an impact.  It may be a tired gun rights trope, but it remains true that if you make guns illegal, only the criminals will have them; and it's obvious they always find a way.  So, stop with the banning talk, because it's nonsense.  

There is a measure that I'd endorse with respect to gun control, which is compulsory training with a twist.  In addition to safety, force any new buyers to sit through a video showing the impact of gunshot wounds; the more gruesome the better.  If you want a sample, Google "rifle wound" (at your own risk).  At least half the class should need to use the course supplied barf bags.  Ensure new gun owners understand the consequences of their potential actions.  My rationale is that most who pull the trigger on another human has only experienced watered down media and video games.  Make it half a day and $50; neither are onerous.  

This entry is part of my "Gun Series" that focuses on providing insight into the gun debate and gun violence.  You can find the other entries in the series HERE.  

About the author: Sean R is a recovering conservative who owns a consulting firm specializing in strategic marketing.  He's been a competitive shooter since the early 90's and holds a High Master classification in PPC and a Master classification in USPSA.  Additionally, he's served as an instructor for gun safety and competition courses.  He lives in Raleigh, North Carolina with his overly vocal white dog, Sadie.