It's The Guns - The Finale

IT'S THE GUNS!!! 

In every discussion about some noteworthy shooting, someone throws out the above talking point.  I've done some analysis in the past, but decided to update my numbers as well as add my own $.02 on the subject.  

I'll begin by stating the obvious, which is the US has a higher level of gun related homicide than most other non-third world countries.  Who gives a shit?  No other country represents a proper comparison to the US.  Europe doesn't matter because they were all monarchies until WWI.  How many other countries have the right to own guns enshrined in their constitution?  You can read a lot more on the US gun culture HERE.  We have more homicides committed with guns; deal with it.

I'll throw out the chart below, which provides a graphic representation of gun ownership versus gun homicides per 100k capita.  You'll note gun ownership hasn't significantly changed in the past 30 years, although it's been slowly trending downward.  Homicides were pretty damned high in the late 80's, then trended downward, settling into a nice valley from 2009 through 2014, then beginning to climb again in 2015.  The jump has been dramatic, too; a 44% increase between 2014 and 2021.  

How does that compare with gun ownership?  Reviewing the six year period from 2009 through 2014, average gun ownership was 41% and gun related homicides per 100k averaged 3.6.  Compared to the six year period from 2016 through 2021, where average gun ownership remained at 41%, but the per 100k average jumped to 5.  

Perhaps a more granular view would be of value.  I think most of us have seen maps similar to the one below, which invariably show southern states as having the highest murder rate per capita.

The message has been the more lax the gun laws, the greater the homicide rate.  But is that true?

To find out, I decided to compare states using three metrics:  

Gun ownership - Supposedly, more guns, more homicides

Murder rate / 100k capita

Giffords Law Center rankings - This provides a benchmark of how tough or lax gun laws are in a specific state.  It's a simple 1-50 ranking; the higher the number, the further toward the bottom, the less stringent the gun laws are.

For the purposes of this particular exercise, I used the 6.6 / 100k average noted on the above map.  Below is what shook out for me.  The first column represents the top 20 states in terms of gun ownership.  The second has the bottom 10, plus a few states I was interested in.  Red highlighting means the state's murder rate is above the national average, yellow indicates it's above but close, red means it's above the national average.

As you review this information, I'll call your attention to a few noteworthy items.  First is how wide the range is in terms of gun ownership.  From Montana, where over half of the population owns them down to NJ, where less than one in five have a gun.  The top five states in terms of gun ownership are near the bottom of the Giffords ranking, yet are at or below the national murder rate average.  There are a few other gems, such as the Dakotas and Kansas.  To be clear, they're gems solely for this metric and literally no other way.  On the flip side, you've got low gun ownership / high Giffords ranking states, such as PA, MI, DE, and IL that still have high murder rates.  And look at NH, which Giffords ranks in the bottom half of states for Draconian gun laws, yet has the lowest murder rate of all.

What does all of this mean?  Well, it's certainly clear that high gun ownership and lax gun laws don't always mean higher murder rates.  In fact, the data suggests it's not the guns.

So, what is it?  I've been reading a few articles that point to factors you may not see coming.  I've already begun work on that entry and hope to have it published by end of week.  This is a complex subject without simple answers.

This entry is part of my "Gun Series" that focuses on providing insight into the gun debate and gun violence.  You can find the other entries in the series HERE.  

About the author: Sean R is a recovering conservative who owns a consulting firm specializing in strategic marketing.  He's been a competitive shooter since the early 90's and holds a High Master classification in PPC and a Master classification in USPSA.  Additionally, he's served as an instructor for gun safety and competition courses.  He lives in Raleigh, North Carolina with his overly vocal white dog, Sadie.